This weekend we have an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these early cards so that I will wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and go out and enjoy the remainder of the afternoon when the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I believe we should have a big edge this week if we place in the work. Most casual players won’t be doing research on those titles they have not heard and will just be throwing lineups seeking to get lucky and hit a huge score. I will be pursuing the big $15k top prize in the 8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at these huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s an arduous card that Sunday and I believe we will see a lot of people making errors in cash games. Any time I believe I will guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I like to pile it into my cash games and lock in those points. I believe this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I believe we can observe multiple knockdowns as well that can help, but I believe we readily get over 100+ points together with both of these guys. Let’s let everyone else make the errors and we could lock at a 100+ points and a win, then we only have to find another 3 wins we’re confident in.
GPP play of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think this matchup was set up to get Bermudez a win. He has quite a slick submission game and when this fight goes to the ground I think he will pick up advance points fast and find a submission. Grant has had issues with entry defense in his profession and even when he is winning on the feet, he still shoots in for takedowns each fight. I believe if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will gradually go for it himself and it’ll cost him. I believe we could see a 1st round submission here and that should easily get that the 10x+ we are searching for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog drama of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily repay this price . He’s got 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup if he can arrive. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped out more times than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shogun can acquire a KO here against Smith, who’s taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down in the past couple of years but I think that he still has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory here. I really do need exposure to both guys in GPPs, however I think you need some exposure to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my own selections being right and that I will hit the right combo. It is hard to choose one favourite fade this week but I will select Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I believe he’ll use takedowns to acquire the decision win here. Thus, you would think that seems good on DraftKings because wrestling racks up points. However, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and he ends up with only 1 or two in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and that I really don’t see him getting a submission. However, I believe we’ll see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory as we have seen from him previously. Hein has 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game logs for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That’s why he’s my fade of the week.
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